Tight supply at the mine end pushes tungsten price to a record high, with a nearly 17% increase since the beginning of the year [SMM Quick Comment]

SMM News on May 29:

Factors such as a decline in the total control indicator for the first batch of tungsten ore mining this year, a drop in mine grades, and extremely low inventory of high-grade tungsten ore have supported tungsten prices. Some suppliers are optimistic about the boost to future tungsten demand from global military upgrades and emerging industries. Suppliers are reluctant to sell, making it difficult to find low-priced tungsten in the market. Tungsten prices have risen by % since the beginning of the year, surpassing their previous all-time high. According to SMM, on the afternoon of May 29, there was a transaction of high-grade tungsten ore at 171,000 yuan/standard mt in the market.

The total control indicator for the first batch of tungsten ore mining this year decreased by 4,000 mt compared to the first batch in 2024.

The Ministry of Natural Resources had previously issued the "Notice on Issuing the Total Control Indicator for Tungsten Ore Mining in 2025 (First Batch)", clarifying matters related to the total control indicator for the first batch of tungsten ore mining this year to protect and reasonably develop advantageous mineral resources. In 2025, the total control indicator for the first batch of tungsten ore (with a tungsten trioxide content of 65%, the same hereinafter) mining is 58,000 mt, allocated to 11 provinces (regions) including Inner Mongolia, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong. Among them, the top three provinces in terms of the indicator are Jiangxi with 21,300 mt, Hunan with 15,530 mt, and Henan with 7,050 mt. Compared to the first batch of indicators in 2024, the total control indicator for the first batch of tungsten ore mining this year decreased by 4,000 mt. The Notice states that the total control indicator for tungsten ore mining will no longer distinguish between primary mining indicators and comprehensive utilisation indicators. For mines where the primary mineral species registered on the mining license is another mineral species and the tungsten ore is co-occurring or associated, and the identified tungsten resources are of large or medium scale, the total control indicator for mining will continue to be issued, with a preference in allocation. For mines with small-scale co-occurring or associated tungsten resources, no total control indicator for mining will be issued, and mining enterprises shall report their tungsten ore production to the provincial natural resources authorities where they are located. 》Click to view details

Wolframite concentrate has risen by 16.87% overall since the beginning of this year.

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Prices: According to SMM quotes, on May 29, the price of wolframite concentrate (≥65%) was 164,000-165,000 yuan/standard mt, with an average price of 164,500 yuan/standard mt. Compared to the average price of 140,750 yuan/standard mt on December 31, 2024, it increased by 23,750 yuan/mt, representing a 16.87% rise.

Spot market: On May 29, the tungsten market generally showed an upward trend. Due to a supply deficit in upstream tungsten concentrate and miners' reluctance to sell, raw material quotes remained firm, and tungsten concentrate prices increased. Some APT suppliers have suspended quoting prices and adopted a wait-and-see attitude due to the rising prices of raw materials, with the market closely monitoring the price trends of raw materials. Meanwhile, as the prices of tungsten raw materials increase, the prices of downstream products in the tungsten industry chain also follow suit. However, considering that tungsten prices have reached record highs, downstream tungsten enterprises have limited acceptance of high-priced supplies, and most transactions in the market are mainly small-scale just-in-time procurement.

Outlook

Currently, the tight supply situation of upstream raw materials is unlikely to ease in the short term. Additionally, considering that many suppliers are optimistic about the future tungsten price outlook, it is expected that the short-term supply and the market's positive sentiment will continue to support the tungsten price to hold up well. However, considering that there has been no significant improvement in the demand for tungsten, the pattern of weak supply and demand will intensify the competition between upstream and downstream tungsten enterprises until there is a notable improvement in demand. The market is paying close attention to the boost in demand for tungsten from emerging industries such as PV, military, and aerospace.